Santos 0–1 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Santos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avai

Giovanni 38'

8/17/2024

Serie B · Round 21Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Santos53%

×Draw25%

Avai22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.92

Santos

1.59

Avai

0.92

Santos creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

1.84

creates per match

1.02

0.81

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Santos

1.84

Avai

1.02

allows per match

Santos

0.81

Avai

1.34

+0.76scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Santos+0.76scores more

Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santos or draw

78%

Santos or Avai

75%

Draw or Avai

47%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

28%

Avai wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

80%

Santos 2+ goals

47%

Santos 3+ goals

21%

Avai 1+ goals

60%

Avai 2+ goals

23%

Avai 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

71%

Avai (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.81 · 5 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.84 + Avai defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.59

Avai attack 1.02 + Santos defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santos scores more

53%

level

25%

Avai scores more

22%

Santos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

César Augusto

Avai · G

8.5

Match Events

38'

Giovanni

61'

Rómulo OteroPenalty confirmed

64'

B. Arce← Serginho

64'

Weslley Patati← R. Otero

71'

Ronaldo Henrique← Willian Maranhão

71'

João Paulo← Giovanni

75'

A. Villarreal← João Schmidt

75'

Hayner← Rodrigo Ferreira

80'

João Basso← Jair

82'

Ronaldo Henrique

85'

Natanael← Vágner Love

90+6'

Alan Costa← Maurício Garcez

90+6'

Judson← Pedro Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosAvai

Overview

65%Possession35%

20Total Shots10

2.14Expected Goals (xG)1.00

7Corners4

7Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots10

5On Target3

7Off Target3

8Blocked4

11Inside Box4

9Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

481Total Passes279

405Accurate Passes193

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Serie B: Santos 0–1 Avai

Avai beat Santos 1-0 in Serie B on August 17, 2024.

Goals: Giovanni (38').

Santos controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.

Santos vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Santos 0–1 Avai