Santos 2–0 Academia Cantolao: Result & Stats

Santos

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Academia Cantolao

L. Pereira 40', 2'

6/11/2024

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal De Vista Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santos52%

×Draw25%

Academia Cantolao22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.93

Santos

1.57

Academia Cantolao

0.93

Santos creates 69% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

1.60

creates per match

0.89

0.96

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Santos

1.60

Academia Cantolao

0.89

allows per match

Santos

0.96

Academia Cantolao

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santos or draw

78%

Santos or Academia Cantolao

75%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

48%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

27%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

79%

Santos 2+ goals

46%

Santos 3+ goals

21%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

61%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

24%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

70%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.60 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.57

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Santos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santos scores more

52%

level

25%

Academia Cantolao scores more

22%

Santos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

L. Pereira

40'

L. Pereira

42'

A. Laura

46'

D. Ramírez← J. Herrera

46'

G. Oliva← M. Cabanillas

46'

J. Jiménez← V. Delgado

62'

A. Flores← R. Alzamora

62'

A. Uceda← J. Delgado

76'

J. Esparza

83'

D. Morales← J. Navarro

83'

R. Zúñiga← R. Andía

Santos

Academia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. Castellanos

46'▲D. Ramírez←▼J. Herrera

83'▲D. Morales←▼J. Navarro

83'▲R. Zúñiga←▼R. Andía

Santos substitutes

RamírezMoralesZúñigaLlanosGoyonecheGarcíaLunaCozziArdiles

Manager: J. Sócola

46'▲G. Oliva←▼M. Cabanillas

46'▲J. Jiménez←▼V. Delgado

62'▲A. Flores←▼R. Alzamora

62'▲A. Uceda←▼J. Delgado

Academia Cantolao substitutes

OlivaJiménezFloresUcedaCabelloCostaHerreraLópezBettocchi