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Santos U20 vs São Raimundo RR U20 — League #618 2026

Santos U20
Santos U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
São Raimundo RR U20
São Raimundo RR U20
P. Cesar 74'
Fernandinho 39'
Deivid Washington 28'
Dieguninho 69'
1/4/2023League #618League #618 · Group Stage - 1Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santos U2086%
×Draw10%
São Raimundo RR U204%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U20
2.88
São Raimundo RR U20
0.45

Santos U20 creates 540% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Santos U20
3.33
São Raimundo RR U20
0.57

allows per match

Santos U20
0.33
São Raimundo RR U20
2.43

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par
São Raimundo RR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

São Raimundo RR U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw
96%
Santos U20 or São Raimundo RR U20
90%
Draw or São Raimundo RR U20
14%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+
67%
São Raimundo RR U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals
94%
Santos U20 2+ goals
78%
Santos U20 3+ goals
54%
São Raimundo RR U20 1+ goals
36%
São Raimundo RR U20 2+ goals
8%
São Raimundo RR U20 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)
96%
São Raimundo RR U20 (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

São Raimundo RR U20 away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.33 + São Raimundo RR U20 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.88

São Raimundo RR U20 attack 0.57 + Santos U20 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Santos U20 scores more
86%
level
10%
São Raimundo RR U20 scores more
4%

Santos U20 at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Deivid Washington
39'
Fernandinho
69'
Dieguninho
74'
P. Cesar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #618: Santos U20 3–1 São Raimundo RR U20

Santos U20 beat São Raimundo RR U20 3-1 in League #618 on January 4, 2023.

Goals: Deivid Washington (28'), Fernandinho (39'), Dieguninho (69'), P. Cesar (74').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.