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Santos U20 vs Itapirense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santos U20
Santos U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
Kauan Pereira 56'
Rodrigo 40'
Guilherme Henrique 90+4'
Eurico 48'
5/31/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santos U2075%
×Draw15%
Itapirense U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U20
2.74
Itapirense U20
0.90

Santos U20 creates 204% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

creates per match

Santos U20
3.00
Itapirense U20
1.12

allows per match

Santos U20
0.67
Itapirense U20
2.47

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par
Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw
90%
Santos U20 or Itapirense U20
85%
Draw or Itapirense U20
25%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+
54%
Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals
93%
Santos U20 2+ goals
75%
Santos U20 3+ goals
51%
Itapirense U20 1+ goals
59%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
23%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)
88%
Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.00 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.74

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Santos U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Santos U20 scores more
75%
level
15%
Itapirense U20 scores more
10%

Santos U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Rodrigo
48'
Eurico
56'
Kauan Pereira
90+4'
Guilherme Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos U20 vs Itapirense U20

Santos U20 and Itapirense U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Rodrigo (40'), Eurico (48'), Kauan Pereira (56'), Guilherme Henrique (90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Espanha in Santos, São Paulo.