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Santos U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2024

Santos U20
Santos U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
Kauan Pereira 48'
P. Estevam 11'
6/21/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Santos U2057%
×Draw21%
Ferroviária U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U20
2.04
Ferroviária U20
1.19

Santos U20 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

creates per match

Santos U20
3.00
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

Santos U20
0.67
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw
78%
Santos U20 or Ferroviária U20
79%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
43%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+
34%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals
87%
Santos U20 2+ goals
60%
Santos U20 3+ goals
33%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
70%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
33%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.00 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Santos U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Santos U20 scores more
57%
level
21%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
22%

Santos U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
P. Estevam
48'
Kauan Pereira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Santos U20 1–1 Ferroviária U20

Santos U20 and Ferroviária U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 21, 2025.

Goals: P. Estevam (11'), Kauan Pereira (48').

The match was played at Estádio Espanha in Santos, São Paulo.