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Santos U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santos U20
Santos U20advanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Unknown 77', 74', 45+3', 9'
Unknown 69'
10/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Santos U2066%
×Draw20%
EC São Bernardo U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U20
2.15
EC São Bernardo U20
0.91

Santos U20 creates 136% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

creates per match

Santos U20
3.00
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

Santos U20
0.67
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw
85%
Santos U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
80%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
34%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+
42%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals
88%
Santos U20 2+ goals
63%
Santos U20 3+ goals
36%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
60%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
23%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)
81%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.00 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.15

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + Santos U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Santos U20 scores more
66%
level
20%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
15%

Santos U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
45+3'
69'
74'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Santos U20 4–1 EC São Bernardo U20

Santos U20 beat EC São Bernardo U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on October 4, 2025.

Goals: ? (9', 45+3', 69', 74', 77').