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Santos U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Santos U17
Santos U17
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
6/23/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santos U1764%
×Draw18%
Gremio U1718%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U17
2.49
Gremio U17
1.27

Santos U17 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Santos U17
2.50
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Santos U17
1.22
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Santos U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Santos U17 or draw
82%
Santos U17 or Gremio U17
82%
Draw or Gremio U17
36%

Winning margin

Santos U17 wins by 2+
42%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Santos U17 1+ goals
92%
Santos U17 2+ goals
71%
Santos U17 3+ goals
45%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
72%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
36%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santos U17 (draw refunded)
78%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U17 attack 2.50 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.49

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Santos U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Santos U17 scores more
64%
level
18%
Gremio U17 scores more
18%

Santos U17 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Santos U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Santos U17 0–1 Gremio U17

Gremio U17 beat Santos U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 23, 2026.