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Santos U17 vs Goias U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Santos U17
Santos U17
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Goias U17
Goias U17
V. Fabri 69'
Padula 64'
M. Xavier 58'
L. Meirelles 53', 31', 20', 5'
R. Gonzaga 45'
Raykkonen 68'
8/14/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 7Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Santos U1779%
×Draw12%
Goias U178%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U17
3.25
Goias U17
1.01

Santos U17 creates 222% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

Santos U17
2.50
Goias U17
0.80

allows per match

Santos U17
1.22
Goias U17
4.00

finishing

Santos U17+0.00on par
Goias U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U17 ↓

Goias U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Santos U17 or draw
92%
Santos U17 or Goias U17
88%
Draw or Goias U17
21%

Winning margin

Santos U17 wins by 2+
61%
Goias U17 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Santos U17 1+ goals
96%
Santos U17 2+ goals
83%
Santos U17 3+ goals
61%
Goias U17 1+ goals
64%
Goias U17 2+ goals
27%
Goias U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santos U17 (draw refunded)
90%
Goias U17 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Goias U17 away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U17 attack 2.50 + Goias U17 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Goias U17 attack 0.80 + Santos U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Santos U17 scores more
79%
level
12%
Goias U17 scores more
8%

Santos U17 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Santos U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
L. Meirelles
20'
L. Meirelles
31'
L. Meirelles
45'
R. Gonzaga
53'
L. Meirelles
58'
M. Xavier
64'
Padula
68'
Raykkonen
69'
V. Fabri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos U17 vs Goias U17

Santos U17 beat Goias U17 8-1 in Brasileiro U17 on August 14, 2024.

Goals: L. Meirelles (5', 20', 31', 53'), R. Gonzaga (45'), M. Xavier (58'), Padula (64'), Raykkonen (68'), V. Fabri (69').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé in Santos, São Paulo.