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Santos U17 vs Ceara U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Santos U17
Santos U17
FT
1 – 0
Ceara U17
Ceara U17
7/9/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 2Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Santos U1760%
×Draw24%
Ceara U1716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U17
1.65
Ceara U17
0.71

Santos U17 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

Santos U17
2.50
Ceara U17
0.20

allows per match

Santos U17
1.22
Ceara U17
0.80

finishing

Santos U17+0.00on par
Ceara U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U17 ↓

Ceara U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santos U17 or draw
84%
Santos U17 or Ceara U17
76%
Draw or Ceara U17
40%

Winning margin

Santos U17 wins by 2+
33%
Ceara U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santos U17 1+ goals
81%
Santos U17 2+ goals
49%
Santos U17 3+ goals
23%
Ceara U17 1+ goals
51%
Ceara U17 2+ goals
16%
Ceara U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santos U17 (draw refunded)
79%
Ceara U17 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Ceara U17 away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U17 attack 2.50 + Ceara U17 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ceara U17 attack 0.20 + Santos U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Santos U17 scores more
60%
level
24%
Ceara U17 scores more
16%

Santos U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Santos U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos U17 vs Ceara U17

Santos U17 beat Ceara U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 9, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé in Santos, São Paulo.