Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL — CONCACAF Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Santos Laguna66%
Tigres UANL15%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Santos Laguna creates 135% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santos Laguna ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santos Laguna at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
Tigres UANL away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santos Laguna attack 3.25 + Tigres UANL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.21
Tigres UANL attack 0.88 + Santos Laguna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
Santos Laguna at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Los Angeles FCTigres UANL
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Nashville SC
Cruz Azul
FC Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
Club America
Los Angeles Galaxy
Philadelphia Union
San Diego
Monterrey
Vancouver Whitecaps
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Inter Miami
Sporting San Miguelito
LD Alajuelense
CD Olimpia
Xelajú
CS Cartagines
Forge
Real Espana
Mount Pleasant Academy
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Defence Force
Universidad O&MIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Santos Laguna host Tigres UANL on Thursday, 11 April 2019 at 00:00. The match is part of the CONCACAF Champions League 2018/2019 season.
Santos Laguna 3 – 2 Tigres UANL
Santos Laguna beat Tigres UANL 3-2 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 11, 2019.
Goals: E. Valencia (11'), J. Quiñones (34'), J. Furch (41', 59'), D. Valdés (77').
The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Corona (Torreón).