Santos Laguna 3–1 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tigres UANL

J. Rodríguez 65', 59'

J. Furch 34'

E. Vargas 52' (pen)

8/19/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio TSM Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Santos Laguna41%

×Draw26%

Tigres UANL33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.23

Santos Laguna

1.40

Tigres UANL

1.23

Santos Laguna creates 14% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 155 away

1.65

creates per match

1.26

1.19

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.65

Tigres UANL

1.26

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.19

Tigres UANL

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

67%

Santos Laguna or Tigres UANL

74%

Draw or Tigres UANL

59%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

19%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

75%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

41%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

17%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

71%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

35%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

55%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 147 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.65 + Tigres UANL defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tigres UANL attack 1.26 + Santos Laguna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

41%

level

26%

Tigres UANL scores more

33%

Santos Laguna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Rodríguez

Santos Laguna · F

9.3

Match Events

34'

35'

42'

45'

46'

E. Vargas← L. Zelarayán

52'

E. VargasPenalty

53'

Eduardo Vargas

59'

J. Rodríguez↳ J. Furch

63'

A. Preciado← J. Isijara

65'

J. Rodríguez

73'

E. Valencia← J. Quiñones

79'

Dória

82'

Rafael Carioca

86'

G. Arteaga← J. Rodríguez

89'

D. Quiñónes← B. Lozano

90'

Jürgen Damm

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosTigres

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots12

5Corners3

11Fouls23

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target3

2Off Target7

3Blocked2

5Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

323Total Passes375

268Accurate Passes325

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls23

2Yellow Cards5

5Offsides0