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Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Necaxa
Necaxa
9/2/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Santos Laguna48%
×Draw24%
Necaxa28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.69
Necaxa
1.23

Santos Laguna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 139 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
72%
Santos Laguna or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
52%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
26%
Necaxa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
82%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
50%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
24%
Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
35%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
63%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
48%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
28%

Santos Laguna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 3–2 Necaxa

Santos Laguna beat Necaxa 3-2 in Liga MX on September 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Corona in Torreón.