Santos Laguna 3–1 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Santos Laguna

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Necaxa

F. Gorriarán 90+2'

F. Otero 53'

S. Muñóz 38'

D. López 78'

3/8/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Santos Laguna48%

×Draw24%

Necaxa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Santos Laguna

1.69

Necaxa

1.23

Santos Laguna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 139 away

1.66

creates per match

1.27

1.18

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.66

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.18

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

72%

Santos Laguna or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

52%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

26%

Necaxa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

82%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

50%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

24%

Necaxa 1+ goals

71%

Necaxa 2+ goals

35%

Necaxa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

63%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

48%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

28%

Santos Laguna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Gorriarán

Santos Laguna · M

8.9

Match Events

10'

Jorge Aguilar

38'

S. Muñóz↳ D. Andrade

46'

K. Mercado← J. Delgado

53'

F. Otero↳ F. Gorriarán

60'

Julio González

71'

Idekel Domínguez

73'

Y. Leiva← D. Cabrera

73'

D. López← M. Barragán

76'

I. Govea← E. Orrantía

77'

I. Jeraldino← S. Muñóz

77'

78'

90'

90'

90+3'

J. Isijara← A. Ibargüen

90+2'

F. Gorriarán↳ F. Otero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosNecaxa

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots7

10Corners4

10Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target3

7Off Target3

4Blocked1

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

297Total Passes251

212Accurate Passes164

71%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4