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Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Necaxa
Necaxa
J. Furch 55'
R. Contreras 90+1'
F. Castro 17'
3/18/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio TSM Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Santos Laguna48%
×Draw24%
Necaxa28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.68
Necaxa
1.23

Santos Laguna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 139 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.65
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.19
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
72%
Santos Laguna or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
52%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
25%
Necaxa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
81%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
50%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
24%
Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
35%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
63%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 147 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.65 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Santos Laguna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
48%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
28%

Santos Laguna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. ValdésSantos LagunaSantos Laguna · M
7.6

Match Events

17'
F. Castro
46'
K. Mercado← F. Castro
55'
J. Furch
63'
D. Quiñónes← M. Moreno
69'
José Abella
69'
E. Herrera← A. Sepúlveda
71'
Alexis Peña
83'
C. Aguirre← K. Mercado
85'
E. Orrantía← B. Lozano
88'
Diego Valdés
90'
Rodrigo Contreras
90+1'
R. Contreras↳ F. Meza

Possession

53%Santos

Shots

13Santos

Pass accuracy

53%Santos

Statistics

SantosNecaxa
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots15
10Corners7
11Fouls24
Shots
13Total Shots15
6On Target5
4Off Target3
3Blocked7
4Inside Box11
9Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
328Total Passes289
233Accurate Passes185
71%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls24
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides4

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 1–2 Necaxa

Necaxa beat Santos Laguna 2-1 in Liga MX on March 18, 2019.

Goals: F. Castro (17'), J. Furch (55'), R. Contreras (90+1').

Santos Laguna controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio TSM Corona in Torreon.