Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santos Laguna vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
1/4/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Santos Laguna62%
×Draw18%
Mineros de Zacatecas21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
2.75
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.57

Santos Laguna creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
0.50
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.40

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.75
Mineros de Zacatecas
5.00

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
79%
Santos Laguna or Mineros de Zacatecas
82%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
38%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
41%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
93%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
75%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
51%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
79%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
46%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
75%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 0.50 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.40 + Santos Laguna defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
62%
level
18%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
21%

Santos Laguna at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Santos Laguna and Mineros de Zacatecas drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 4, 2025.