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Santos Laguna vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
7/22/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio TSM Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santos Laguna56%
×Draw23%
Lobos Buap21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.83
Lobos Buap
1.03

Santos Laguna creates 78% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 17 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
79%
Santos Laguna or Lobos Buap
77%
Draw or Lobos Buap
44%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
32%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
84%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
54%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
28%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
64%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
28%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
73%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
56%
level
23%
Lobos Buap scores more
21%

Santos Laguna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 2–1 Lobos Buap

Santos Laguna beat Lobos Buap 2-1 in Liga MX on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio TSM Corona in Torreon.