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Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
Preview
01:00
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
8/17/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Corona
Big match
43%
Santos Laguna
model favours
43%26%31%

Santos Laguna raise their game against the top half — 35% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna43%
×Draw26%
Guadalajara Chivas31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.44
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

Santos Laguna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 146 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
69%
Santos Laguna or Guadalajara Chivas
74%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
57%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
21%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
76%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
42%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
18%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
69%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
33%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
58%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
43%
level
26%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
31%

Santos Laguna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santos Laguna sit 18, Guadalajara Chivas 2 in the table
  • Santos Laguna fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Santos Laguna
Balanced
Guadalajara Chivas
Balanced
48%Possession50%
79%Pass accuracy81%
10.4ShotsBiggest gap13.0
1.43xG1.43
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Santos LagunaGuadalajara Chivas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Santos Laguna
3
Draws
5
Guadalajara Chivas
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 30%
0–31–00–10–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Laguna
LLWWW
Chivas
LDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santos Laguna host Guadalajara Chivas

August 17, 2026: Santos Laguna take on Guadalajara Chivas in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Santos Laguna host Guadalajara Chivas at Estadio Corona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.