Santos Laguna 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas

Santos Laguna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Guadalajara Chivas

11/6/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna43%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.18

Santos Laguna

1.44

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

Santos Laguna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 146 away

1.66

creates per match

1.18

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.66

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.18

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

69%

Santos Laguna or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

57%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

21%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

76%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

42%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

18%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

69%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

33%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

58%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

43%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

31%

Santos Laguna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff