Santos Laguna 1–1 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Tijuana

J. Correa 58'

M. Bolaños 20'

2/11/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio TSM Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Santos Laguna55%

×Draw23%

Club Tijuana22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.02

Santos Laguna

1.78

Club Tijuana

1.02

Santos Laguna creates 75% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 133 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

1.19

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.65

Club Tijuana

0.86

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.19

Club Tijuana

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

78%

Santos Laguna or Club Tijuana

77%

Draw or Club Tijuana

45%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

31%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

83%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

53%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

26%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

64%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

27%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

72%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 147 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.65 + Club Tijuana defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.78

Club Tijuana attack 0.86 + Santos Laguna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

55%

level

23%

Club Tijuana scores more

22%

Santos Laguna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

B. Lozano

Santos Laguna · M

8.1

Match Events

20'

M. Bolaños↳ F. Castillo

50'

Javier Correa

58'

J. Correa↳ H. Rodríguez

59'

M. Moreno← B. Lozano

62'

D. González← M. Bolaños

71'

Hugo Rodriguez

71'

D. Quiñónes← A. Preciado

74'

L. Chávez← G. Bou

78'

G. Arteaga← J. Furch

84'

J. Valenzuela← I. Rivero

90'

Gerardo Arteaga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosClub

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots8

5Corners1

23Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

458Total Passes365

362Accurate Passes278

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls15

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1