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Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
8/19/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Club Tijuana50%
×Draw24%
Santos Laguna26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
1.71
Santos Laguna
1.15

Club Tijuana creates 49% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 142 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.54
Santos Laguna
1.09

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.20
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
74%
Club Tijuana or Santos Laguna
76%
Draw or Santos Laguna
50%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
27%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
82%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
51%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
24%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
68%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
32%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
66%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.54 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.71

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Club Tijuana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
50%
level
24%
Santos Laguna scores more
26%

Club Tijuana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club Tijuana 3–1 Santos Laguna

Club Tijuana beat Santos Laguna 3-1 in Liga MX on August 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.