Santos Laguna 1–0 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Queretaro

Dória 17'

10/30/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Santos Laguna53%

×Draw24%

Club Queretaro23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.05

Santos Laguna

1.71

Club Queretaro

1.05

Santos Laguna creates 63% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 139 away

1.65

creates per match

0.91

1.19

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.65

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.19

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

77%

Santos Laguna or Club Queretaro

76%

Draw or Club Queretaro

47%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

29%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

82%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

51%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

24%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

65%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

28%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

69%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 147 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.65 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Santos Laguna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

53%

level

24%

Club Queretaro scores more

23%

Santos Laguna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Dória

Santos Laguna · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

Dória

46'

E. Games← U. Rivas

57'

F. Castillo← A. Del Valle

65'

A. Lozano← D. Valdés

71'

J. Cortizo← S. Lucumí

71'

A. Loba← M. Ruiz

79'

O. Rivero← J. Furch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosClub

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots16

5Corners8

22Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target2

6Off Target11

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

338Total Passes388

247Accurate Passes306

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

22Fouls12

1Offsides2