Club Queretaro 3–2 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Santos Laguna

R. Cisneros 90+3'

R. Rubín 66', 36'

F. Fagúndez 90+7'

J. Pérez 17'

11/9/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Queretaro40%

×Draw22%

Santos Laguna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.84

Club Queretaro

1.88

Santos Laguna

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

1.86

1.82

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.76

Santos Laguna

1.86

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.82

Santos Laguna

2.00

-0.76scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.76scores less

Santos Laguna-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

62%

Club Queretaro or Santos Laguna

78%

Draw or Santos Laguna

60%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

21%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

85%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

56%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

29%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

84%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

55%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

51%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.76 + Santos Laguna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Santos Laguna attack 1.86 + Club Queretaro defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

40%

level

22%

Santos Laguna scores more

38%

Club Queretaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

R. Rubín

Club Queretaro · F

8.3

Match Events

17'

J. Pérez↳ F. Fagúndez

19'

Pablo Nicolás Ortíz

32'

J. Robles← P. Ortíz

36'

R. Rubín↳ K. Escamilla

43'

51'

52'

54'

54'

54'

66'

68'

68'

R. Cisneros← D. Benedetto

75'

G. Muñoz← S. Muñóz

75'

S. Carrillo← E. Santillán

75'

Fran Villalba← P. Aquino

82'

A. Medina← P. Barrera

82'

A. Pérez← L. Rodríguez

84'

L. Gómez← T. Jiménez

84'

H. Carranza← L. Gutiérrez

90+8'

Franco Fagúndez

90+3'

R. Cisneros

90+7'

F. Fagúndez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubSantos

Overview

38%Possession62%

15Total Shots13

6Corners7

18Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target3

6Off Target7

5Blocked3

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

329Total Passes562

256Accurate Passes484

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4