Santos Laguna 0–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

J. Murillo 90'

7/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santos Laguna16%

×Draw28%

America de Cali57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.58

1.38

Santos Laguna

0.58

America de Cali

1.38

America de Cali creates 138% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Santos Laguna

0.50

America de Cali

1.00

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.75

America de Cali

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

America de Cali →

0–014%

0–119%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

43%

Santos Laguna or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

84%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

America de Cali wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

44%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

12%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

75%

America de Cali 2+ goals

40%

America de Cali 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

22%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 0.50 + America de Cali defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

America de Cali attack 1.00 + Santos Laguna defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

16%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

57%

America de Cali at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

J. Murillo

Santos

America

Manager: Paiva Renato

Manager: David Gonzalez

America de Cali substitutes

12MontoyaBenitez2Torres13Castillo22Hernandez30Bertel33Mina44Cordoba5Escobar10Guzman18Quintero29Amu7Murillo21Angel35Angulo

Friendlies Clubs: Santos Laguna 0–1 America de Cali

America de Cali beat Santos Laguna 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2026.

Goals: J. Murillo (90').

Santos Laguna vs America de Cali — Friendlies Clubs 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Santos Laguna 0–1 America de Cali