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Santomera vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera44%
×Draw26%
UD Caravaca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.48
UD Caravaca
1.19

Santomera creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
70%
Santomera or UD Caravaca
74%
Draw or UD Caravaca
56%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
21%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
77%
Santomera 2+ goals
43%
Santomera 3+ goals
19%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
70%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
33%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
59%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santomera scores more
44%
level
26%
UD Caravaca scores more
30%

Santomera at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santomera 3–2 UD Caravaca

Santomera beat UD Caravaca 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.