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Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera36%
×Draw27%
UCAM Murcia II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.26
UCAM Murcia II
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 110 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
63%
Santomera or UCAM Murcia II
73%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
64%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
16%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
72%
Santomera 2+ goals
36%
Santomera 3+ goals
13%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
72%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
36%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
50%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santomera scores more
36%
level
27%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
37%

UCAM Murcia II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santomera 3 – 1 UCAM Murcia II

Santomera beat UCAM Murcia II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.