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Santomera vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera37%
×Draw27%
Real Murcia II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.26
Real Murcia II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
64%
Santomera or Real Murcia II
73%
Draw or Real Murcia II
63%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
16%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
72%
Santomera 2+ goals
36%
Santomera 3+ goals
13%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
71%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
35%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
51%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santomera scores more
37%
level
27%
Real Murcia II scores more
36%

Santomera at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santomera 1–0 Real Murcia II

Santomera beat Real Murcia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.