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Santomera vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
3/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Estadio Villa de Beniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera60%
×Draw22%
Plus Ultra19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.97
Plus Ultra
1.00

Santomera creates 97% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
81%
Santomera or Plus Ultra
78%
Draw or Plus Ultra
40%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
36%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
86%
Santomera 2+ goals
58%
Santomera 3+ goals
31%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
63%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
26%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
76%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Santomera scores more
60%
level
22%
Plus Ultra scores more
19%

Santomera at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santomera vs Plus Ultra

Santomera beat Plus Ultra 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Villa de Beniel in Beniel.