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Santomera vs Cieza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cieza
Cieza
9/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera32%
×Draw27%
Cieza41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.12
Cieza
1.31

Cieza creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
Cieza
1.42

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
Cieza
0.86

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
Cieza+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

Cieza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
59%
Santomera or Cieza
73%
Draw or Cieza
68%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
13%
Cieza wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
67%
Santomera 2+ goals
31%
Santomera 3+ goals
10%
Cieza 1+ goals
73%
Cieza 2+ goals
38%
Cieza 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
44%
Cieza (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Cieza away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + Cieza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cieza attack 1.42 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santomera scores more
32%
level
27%
Cieza scores more
41%

Cieza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santomera 1–2 Cieza

Cieza beat Santomera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.