Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santomera vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
10/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera49%
×Draw26%
Balsicas Atlético25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.51
Balsicas Atlético
1.01

Santomera creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
Balsicas Atlético
0.82

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

Balsicas Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
75%
Santomera or Balsicas Atlético
74%
Draw or Balsicas Atlético
51%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
25%
Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
78%
Santomera 2+ goals
44%
Santomera 3+ goals
19%
Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
64%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
27%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
66%
Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santomera scores more
49%
level
26%
Balsicas Atlético scores more
25%

Santomera at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santomera vs Balsicas Atlético

Balsicas Atlético beat Santomera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.