Santo André 0–1 Esportivo: Result & Stats | Serie D

Santo André

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Esportivo

9/18/2021

Serie D · Round of 32Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Santo André40%

×Draw35%

Esportivo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santo AndréExpected goals in this matchEsportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.65

Santo André

0.93

Esportivo

0.65

Santo André creates 43% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 9 away

1.07

creates per match

0.67

0.62

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Santo André

1.07

Esportivo

0.67

allows per match

Santo André

0.62

Esportivo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santo André+0.00on par

Esportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André ↓

Esportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Santo André or draw

76%

Santo André or Esportivo

65%

Draw or Esportivo

60%

Winning margin

Santo André wins by 2+

15%

Esportivo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santo André 1+ goals

61%

Santo André 2+ goals

24%

Santo André 3+ goals

7%

Esportivo 1+ goals

48%

Esportivo 2+ goals

14%

Esportivo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Santo André (draw refunded)

62%

Esportivo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

Esportivo away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André attack 1.07 + Esportivo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Esportivo attack 0.67 + Santo André defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santo André scores more

40%

level

35%

Esportivo scores more

24%

Santo André at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santo André will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff