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Santo André U20 vs União Suzano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santo André U20
Santo André U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
União Suzano U20
União Suzano U20
Mauricio 21'
D. Davi 12'
6/27/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santo André U2041%
×Draw24%
União Suzano U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santo André U20
1.61
União Suzano U20
1.45

Santo André U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Santo André U20
1.63
União Suzano U20
0.95

allows per match

Santo André U20
1.95
União Suzano U20
1.59

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par
União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw
65%
Santo André U20 or União Suzano U20
76%
Draw or União Suzano U20
59%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+
21%
União Suzano U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals
80%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
48%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
22%
União Suzano U20 1+ goals
77%
União Suzano U20 2+ goals
42%
União Suzano U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
55%
União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santo André U20 scores more
41%
level
24%
União Suzano U20 scores more
35%

Santo André U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
D. Davi
21'
Mauricio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santo André U20 vs União Suzano U20

Santo André U20 beat União Suzano U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 27, 2025.

Goals: D. Davi (12'), Mauricio (21').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.