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Santo André U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santo André U20
Santo André U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
Marcinho 76'
D. Davi 47'
Unknown 90+2'
6/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santo André U2044%
×Draw23%
Sertãozinho U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santo André U20
1.79
Sertãozinho U20
1.54

Santo André U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Santo André U20
1.63
Sertãozinho U20
1.13

allows per match

Santo André U20
1.95
Sertãozinho U20
1.96

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par
Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw
67%
Santo André U20 or Sertãozinho U20
77%
Draw or Sertãozinho U20
56%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+
23%
Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals
83%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
53%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
26%
Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
79%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
45%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santo André U20 scores more
44%
level
23%
Sertãozinho U20 scores more
33%

Santo André U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
D. Davi
76'
Marcinho
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Santo André U20 2–1 Sertãozinho U20

Santo André U20 beat Sertãozinho U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 6, 2025.

Goals: D. Davi (47'), Marcinho (76'), ? (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.