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Santo André U20 vs Mirassol U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santo André U20
Santo André U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
Unknown 90+1'
D. Ortolan 89'
Wesley Santos 75'
E. Silva 54'
8/2/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santo André U2032%
×Draw22%
Mirassol U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santo André U20
1.59
Mirassol U20
1.93

Mirassol U20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Santo André U20
1.63
Mirassol U20
1.91

allows per match

Santo André U20
1.95
Mirassol U20
1.55

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par
Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw
54%
Santo André U20 or Mirassol U20
78%
Draw or Mirassol U20
68%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+
15%
Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals
80%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
47%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
21%
Mirassol U20 1+ goals
85%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
57%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
41%
Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santo André U20 scores more
32%
level
22%
Mirassol U20 scores more
46%

Mirassol U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
E. Silva
75'
Wesley Santos
89'
D. Ortolan
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santo André U20 vs Mirassol U20

Mirassol U20 beat Santo André U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on August 2, 2024.

Goals: E. Silva (54'), Wesley Santos (75'), D. Ortolan (89'), ? (90+1').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.