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Santo André U20 vs Mauaense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santo André U20
Santo André U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mauaense U20
Mauaense U20
Rafael 86'
Marcinho 75', 72'
Reinaldo 83'
Guilherme 79'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Santo André U2075%
×Draw13%
Mauaense U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santo André U20
3.42
Mauaense U20
1.38

Santo André U20 creates 148% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Santo André U20
1.63
Mauaense U20
0.80

allows per match

Santo André U20
1.95
Mauaense U20
5.20

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par
Mauaense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 85Under: 1585%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

Mauaense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw
88%
Santo André U20 or Mauaense U20
87%
Draw or Mauaense U20
25%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+
56%
Mauaense U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals
97%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
85%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
64%
Mauaense U20 1+ goals
75%
Mauaense U20 2+ goals
40%
Mauaense U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
86%
Mauaense U20 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Mauaense U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 5.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + Mauaense U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 3.42

Mauaense U20 attack 0.80 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Santo André U20 scores more
75%
level
13%
Mauaense U20 scores more
12%

Santo André U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
Marcinho
75'
Marcinho
79'
Guilherme
83'
Reinaldo
86'
Rafael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santo André U20 vs Mauaense U20

Santo André U20 beat Mauaense U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Marcinho (72', 75'), Guilherme (79'), Reinaldo (83'), Rafael (86').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.