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Santiago Wanderers vs Recoleta — Primera B 2026

Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Recoleta
Recoleta
7/16/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 16Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Santiago Wanderers47%
×Draw26%
Recoleta26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Wanderers
1.45
Recoleta
1.01

Santiago Wanderers creates 44% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 70 away

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.61
Recoleta
0.94

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.08
Recoleta
1.29

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par
Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Recoleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw
74%
Santiago Wanderers or Recoleta
74%
Draw or Recoleta
53%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
23%
Recoleta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
77%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
42%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
18%
Recoleta 1+ goals
64%
Recoleta 2+ goals
27%
Recoleta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
64%
Recoleta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Recoleta away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.61 + Recoleta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Recoleta attack 0.94 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more
47%
level
26%
Recoleta scores more
26%

Santiago Wanderers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Santiago Wanderers 1–1 Recoleta

Santiago Wanderers and Recoleta drew 1-1 in Primera B on July 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.