Santiago Wanderers 1–1 Deportes Iquique

Santiago Wanderers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportes Iquique

6/4/2023

Primera B · Round 15Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Santiago Wanderers48%

×Draw25%

Deportes Iquique26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchDeportes Iquique

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.10

Santiago Wanderers

1.58

Deportes Iquique

1.10

Santiago Wanderers creates 44% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 55 away

1.61

creates per match

1.11

1.08

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.61

Deportes Iquique

1.11

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.08

Deportes Iquique

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Deportes Iquique →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

74%

Santiago Wanderers or Deportes Iquique

75%

Draw or Deportes Iquique

52%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

25%

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

79%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

47%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

21%

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

67%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

30%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

65%

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.61 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Deportes Iquique attack 1.11 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

48%

level

25%

Deportes Iquique scores more

26%

Santiago Wanderers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff