Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Deportes Copiapo

Santiago Wanderers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Copiapo

L. Navarro 90' (pen)

8/9/2025

Primera B · Round 20Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Santiago Wanderers47%

×Draw26%

Deportes Copiapo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchDeportes Copiapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Santiago Wanderers

1.50

Deportes Copiapo

1.08

Santiago Wanderers creates 39% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

1.64

creates per match

1.08

1.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.64

Deportes Copiapo

1.08

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.07

Deportes Copiapo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Deportes Copiapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

73%

Santiago Wanderers or Deportes Copiapo

74%

Draw or Deportes Copiapo

53%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

23%

Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

78%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

44%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

19%

Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals

66%

Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals

29%

Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

63%

Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 88 matches

Deportes Copiapo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.64 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.08 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

47%

level

26%

Deportes Copiapo scores more

27%

Santiago Wanderers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

54'

56'

57'

58'

67'

69'

71'

81'

83'

J. Monreal← J. Pereyra

83'

S. A. Espinoza Olave← T. Jones

90+1'

B. Acosta

90+8'

C. Salomon

90'

L. NavarroPenalty

Santiago

Deportes

23

Fierro

4

▼

3

5

15

28

21

10

▼

Mazurek

14

▼

9

18

1

17

18

23

6

29

5

⚽

Navarro

10

Luna

8

▼

Pereyra

21

▼

Duma

27

▼

Cuadra

Manager: Domingo Sorace Figueroa

34'▲E. Espinoza←▼J. Duma

81'▲D. Opazo←▼M. Cuadra

83'▲J. Monreal←▼J. Pereyra

Santiago Wanderers substitutes

40Olivares3Margas22Salas30Espinoza14Ponce7Opazo9Monreal

Manager: H. Caputto

67'▲M. Filla←▼A. Ortiz

71'▲D. Opazo←▼F. Mazurek

83'▲S. A. Espinoza Olave←▼T. Jones

Deportes Copiapo substitutes

22Espinoza7Ross13Opazo19Olave20Filla24Orellana31Lopez

Primera B: Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Deportes Copiapo

Santiago Wanderers beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 in Primera B on August 9, 2025.

Goals: L. Navarro (90' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.

Santiago Wanderers vs Deportes Copiapo — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Deportes Copiapo