Santiago Wanderers 5–1 Cobreloa: Result & Stats

Santiago Wanderers

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cobreloa

G. Gotti 90' (OG)

M. Camarda 75', 58', 46'

L. Navarro 15' (pen)

F. Velazco 32'

5/10/2026

Primera B · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Santiago Wanderers50%

×Draw25%

Cobreloa25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchCobreloa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.03

Santiago Wanderers

1.57

Cobreloa

1.03

Santiago Wanderers creates 52% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 100 away

1.64

creates per match

0.99

1.07

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.64

Cobreloa

0.99

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.07

Cobreloa

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Cobreloa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

75%

Santiago Wanderers or Cobreloa

75%

Draw or Cobreloa

50%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

26%

Cobreloa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

79%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

46%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

21%

Cobreloa 1+ goals

64%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

28%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

67%

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 88 matches

Cobreloa away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.50 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.64 + Cobreloa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cobreloa attack 0.99 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

50%

level

25%

Cobreloa scores more

25%

Santiago Wanderers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. NavarroPenalty

16'

17'

31'

32'

44'

46'

58'

58'

61'

62'

66'

67'

T. Aranguiz← F. Velazco

68'

A. Herrera

72'

L. Avendano← I. Flores

75'

M. Camarda

79'

C. Caceres← A. Herrera

79'

V. Vargas← D. San Martin

81'

C. Muga

86'

A. Dubo← C. Valenzuela

86'

V. Vera← C. Ponce

90+2'

A. Quezada← M. Sandoval

90'

G. GottiOwn goal

Santiago

Cobreloa

30

24

4

5

8

7

21

32

⚽

▼

Velazco

27

▼

Sandoval

11

🥅

Gotti

10

Insaurral

36

Martinez

7

▼

Herrera

18

Felipe

31

▼

Valenzuel

16

Navarro

23

▼

Flores

5

⚽

Navarro

15

Villarroe

14

▼

Ponce

37

▼

Martin

9

⚽3

Camarda

Manager: Francisco Palladino

72'▲L. Avendano←▼I. Flores

79'▲C. Caceres←▼A. Herrera

79'▲V. Vargas←▼D. San Martin

86'▲A. Dubo←▼C. Valenzuela

86'▲V. Vera←▼C. Ponce

Santiago Wanderers substitutes

12Olivares17Caceres24Dubo8Silva27Vera20Avendano32Vargas

Manager: Cesar Bravo

67'▲T. Aranguiz←▼F. Velazco

90+2'▲A. Quezada←▼M. Sandoval

Cobreloa substitutes

1Tobar3Gonzalez13Quezada14Aranguiz18Mendez19Navarro31Gallardo

Primera B: Santiago Wanderers 5–1 Cobreloa

Santiago Wanderers beat Cobreloa 5-1 in Primera B on May 10, 2026.

Goals: L. Navarro (15' pen), F. Velazco (32'), M. Camarda (46', 58', 75'), G. Gotti (90' o.g.).

Santiago Wanderers vs Cobreloa — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Santiago Wanderers 5–1 Cobreloa