Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santiago Morning vs Provincial Osorno — Segunda División 2020

Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
5/30/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Santiago Morning34%
×Draw32%
Provincial Osorno35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Morning
0.96
Provincial Osorno
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 43 away

creates per match

Santiago Morning
0.33
Provincial Osorno
1.26

allows per match

Santiago Morning
0.67
Provincial Osorno
1.58

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par
Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

Provincial Osorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw
65%
Santiago Morning or Provincial Osorno
68%
Draw or Provincial Osorno
66%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+
12%
Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals
62%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
25%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
7%
Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
62%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
25%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
50%
Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 0.33 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 0.96

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Santiago Morning defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Santiago Morning scores more
34%
level
32%
Provincial Osorno scores more
35%

Provincial Osorno at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santiago Morning vs Provincial Osorno

Santiago Morning and Provincial Osorno drew 0-0 in Segunda División on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.