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Santiago Morning vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barnechea
Barnechea
7/3/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 18Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Santiago Morning42%
×Draw27%
Barnechea30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Morning
1.35
Barnechea
1.10

Santiago Morning creates 23% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 95 away

creates per match

Santiago Morning
1.19
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Santiago Morning
1.10
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw
70%
Santiago Morning or Barnechea
73%
Draw or Barnechea
58%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+
20%
Barnechea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals
74%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
39%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
15%
Barnechea 1+ goals
67%
Barnechea 2+ goals
30%
Barnechea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
58%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 1.19 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Santiago Morning defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santiago Morning scores more
42%
level
27%
Barnechea scores more
30%

Santiago Morning at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Santiago Morning 1–1 Barnechea

Santiago Morning and Barnechea drew 1-1 in Primera B on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.