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Santfeliuenc vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
11/2/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc36%
×Draw28%
Vilassar Mar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.19
Vilassar Mar
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 109 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
64%
Santfeliuenc or Vilassar Mar
72%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
64%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
15%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
70%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
33%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
12%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
70%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
33%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
50%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
36%
level
28%
Vilassar Mar scores more
36%

Santfeliuenc at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Santfeliuenc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Santfeliuenc 2–3 Vilassar Mar

Vilassar Mar beat Santfeliuenc 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases in Barcelona.