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Santfeliuenc vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
CANC
00:00
Vilafranca
Vilafranca
4/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc39%
×Draw26%
Vilafranca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.39
Vilafranca
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 74 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
Vilafranca
1.12

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
Vilafranca
1.59

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Vilafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
65%
Santfeliuenc or Vilafranca
74%
Draw or Vilafranca
61%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
18%
Vilafranca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
75%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
40%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
16%
Vilafranca 1+ goals
72%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
37%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
53%
Vilafranca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
39%
level
26%
Vilafranca scores more
35%

Santfeliuenc at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santfeliuenc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santfeliuenc vs Vilafranca — Match Preview

Santfeliuenc face Vilafranca on April 18, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Santfeliuenc host Vilafranca at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.