Santfeliuenc 1–0 Valls: Result & Stats

Santfeliuenc

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valls

Jonathan Collado 15'

2/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Santfeliuenc37%

×Draw29%

Valls34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantfeliuencExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.09

Santfeliuenc

1.15

Valls

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

1.18

creates per match

0.73

1.46

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Santfeliuenc

1.18

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Santfeliuenc

1.46

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Valls →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw

66%

Santfeliuenc or Valls

71%

Draw or Valls

63%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+

15%

Valls wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals

68%

Santfeliuenc 2+ goals

32%

Santfeliuenc 3+ goals

11%

Valls 1+ goals

66%

Valls 2+ goals

30%

Valls 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)

52%

Valls (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Valls attack 0.73 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more

37%

level

29%

Valls scores more

34%

Santfeliuenc at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santfeliuenc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Jonathan Collado

63'

César Valero← Jonathan Collado

68'

Xavi Fabra← Albert Plana

72'

S. Bello← Guillem Naranjo

72'

Daniel Peña← Alfonso Castellano

77'

Ramón Miranda← Sergi Gomez

77'

Cesc Martínez← Eric Martí

77'

Oscar Pérez← Jordi Prades

89'

Adrián Toro← Romo

Santfeliuenc

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Andrés González

63'▲César Valero←▼Jonathan Collado

72'▲S. Bello←▼Guillem Naranjo

72'▲Daniel Peña←▼Alfonso Castellano

89'▲Adrián Toro←▼Romo

Santfeliuenc substitutes

ValeroBelloPeñaToro

Manager: Joan Pallarés

68'▲Xavi Fabra←▼Albert Plana

77'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Sergi Gomez

77'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Eric Martí

77'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Jordi Prades

Valls substitutes

FabraMirandaMartínezPérez

Match Recap: Santfeliuenc vs Valls

Santfeliuenc beat Valls 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 13, 2021.

Goals: Jonathan Collado (15').

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases in Barcelona.

Santfeliuenc vs Valls — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santfeliuenc vs Valls