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Santfeliuenc vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc36%
×Draw27%
Pobla Mafumet37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.26
Pobla Mafumet
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 76 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
Pobla Mafumet
1.07

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
Pobla Mafumet
1.34

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Pobla Mafumet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
63%
Santfeliuenc or Pobla Mafumet
73%
Draw or Pobla Mafumet
64%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
16%
Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
72%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
36%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
13%
Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
72%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
36%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
50%
Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
36%
level
27%
Pobla Mafumet scores more
37%

Pobla Mafumet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santfeliuenc vs Pobla Mafumet

Santfeliuenc beat Pobla Mafumet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases in Barcelona.