Santfeliuenc 1–0 Peralada: Result & Stats

Santfeliuenc

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peralada

1/25/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc33%

×Draw28%

Peralada39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantfeliuencExpected goals in this matchPeralada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Santfeliuenc

1.11

Peralada

1.23

Peralada creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 110 away

1.18

creates per match

1.01

1.46

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Santfeliuenc

1.18

Peralada

1.01

allows per match

Santfeliuenc

1.46

Peralada

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par

Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Peralada →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw

61%

Santfeliuenc or Peralada

72%

Draw or Peralada

67%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+

13%

Peralada wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals

67%

Santfeliuenc 2+ goals

30%

Santfeliuenc 3+ goals

10%

Peralada 1+ goals

71%

Peralada 2+ goals

35%

Peralada 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)

46%

Peralada (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Peralada attack 1.01 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more

33%

level

28%

Peralada scores more

39%

Peralada at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff