Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santfeliuenc vs Montañesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Montañesa
Montañesa
3/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc42%
×Draw27%
Montañesa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.32
Montañesa
1.07

Santfeliuenc creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 81 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
Montañesa
0.68

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
Montañesa
1.47

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Montañesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
70%
Santfeliuenc or Montañesa
73%
Draw or Montañesa
58%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
19%
Montañesa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
73%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
38%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
15%
Montañesa 1+ goals
66%
Montañesa 2+ goals
29%
Montañesa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
58%
Montañesa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
42%
level
27%
Montañesa scores more
30%

Santfeliuenc at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santfeliuenc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santfeliuenc vs Montañesa

Santfeliuenc and Montañesa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases in Barcelona.