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Santfeliuenc vs Manresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Manresa
Manresa
11/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc31%
×Draw27%
Manresa42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.11
Manresa
1.36

Manresa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 76 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
Manresa
1.26

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
Manresa
1.05

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
Manresa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Manresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
58%
Santfeliuenc or Manresa
73%
Draw or Manresa
69%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
12%
Manresa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
67%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
30%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
10%
Manresa 1+ goals
74%
Manresa 2+ goals
39%
Manresa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
42%
Manresa (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Manresa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Manresa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Manresa attack 1.26 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
31%
level
27%
Manresa scores more
42%

Manresa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Santfeliuenc 0–3 Manresa

Manresa beat Santfeliuenc 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases in Barcelona.