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Santarritense U20 vs Minas Boca U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Santarritense U20
Santarritense U20
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Minas Boca U20
Minas Boca U20
7/5/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santarritense U2029%
×Draw18%
Minas Boca U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santarritense U20
2.31
Minas Boca U20
3.07

Minas Boca U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Santarritense U20
0.86
Minas Boca U20
1.00

allows per match

Santarritense U20
5.14
Minas Boca U20
3.75

finishing

Santarritense U20+0.00on par
Minas Boca U20+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santarritense U20 ↓

Minas Boca U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Santarritense U20 or draw
47%
Santarritense U20 or Minas Boca U20
82%
Draw or Minas Boca U20
71%

Winning margin

Santarritense U20 wins by 2+
16%
Minas Boca U20 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Santarritense U20 1+ goals
90%
Santarritense U20 2+ goals
67%
Santarritense U20 3+ goals
40%
Minas Boca U20 1+ goals
95%
Minas Boca U20 2+ goals
80%
Minas Boca U20 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)
36%
Minas Boca U20 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santarritense U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Minas Boca U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santarritense U20 attack 0.86 + Minas Boca U20 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Minas Boca U20 attack 1.00 + Santarritense U20 defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 3.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santarritense U20 scores more
29%
level
18%
Minas Boca U20 scores more
53%

Minas Boca U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Minas Boca U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Santarritense U20 1–4 Minas Boca U20

Minas Boca U20 beat Santarritense U20 4-1 in Mineiro U20 on July 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral in Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Minas Gerais.