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Santarritense U20 vs Ipatinga U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Santarritense U20
Santarritense U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
Unknown 39'
6/22/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santarritense U2040%
×Draw18%
Ipatinga U2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santarritense U20
2.72
Ipatinga U20
2.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Santarritense U20
0.86
Ipatinga U20
0.43

allows per match

Santarritense U20
5.14
Ipatinga U20
4.57

finishing

Santarritense U20+0.00on par
Ipatinga U20+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santarritense U20 ↓

Ipatinga U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Santarritense U20 or draw
58%
Santarritense U20 or Ipatinga U20
82%
Draw or Ipatinga U20
60%

Winning margin

Santarritense U20 wins by 2+
24%
Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Santarritense U20 1+ goals
93%
Santarritense U20 2+ goals
75%
Santarritense U20 3+ goals
50%
Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
94%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
76%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santarritense U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Ipatinga U20 away — creates 0.43, concedes 4.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santarritense U20 attack 0.86 + Ipatinga U20 defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 2.72

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.43 + Santarritense U20 defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santarritense U20 scores more
40%
level
18%
Ipatinga U20 scores more
42%

Ipatinga U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ipatinga U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Santarritense U20 1–0 Ipatinga U20

Santarritense U20 beat Ipatinga U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on June 22, 2024.

Goals: ? (39').

The match was played at Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral in Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Minas Gerais.