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Santarritense U20 vs Inter de Minas U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Santarritense U20
Santarritense U20
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Inter de Minas U20
Inter de Minas U20
E. Silva de Oliveira 64'
C. Barreto 83'
R. Cardoso Filho 76'
Caick 51', 6'
Caua 48'
K. Pereira 14'
5/18/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santarritense U2011%
×Draw13%
Inter de Minas U2077%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santarritense U20
1.28
Inter de Minas U20
3.44

Inter de Minas U20 creates 169% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Santarritense U20
0.86
Inter de Minas U20
1.75

allows per match

Santarritense U20
5.14
Inter de Minas U20
1.70

finishing

Santarritense U20+0.00on par
Inter de Minas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santarritense U20 ↓

Inter de Minas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Santarritense U20 or draw
23%
Santarritense U20 or Inter de Minas U20
87%
Draw or Inter de Minas U20
89%

Winning margin

Santarritense U20 wins by 2+
4%
Inter de Minas U20 wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Santarritense U20 1+ goals
72%
Santarritense U20 2+ goals
37%
Santarritense U20 3+ goals
14%
Inter de Minas U20 1+ goals
97%
Inter de Minas U20 2+ goals
85%
Inter de Minas U20 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)
12%
Inter de Minas U20 (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santarritense U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Inter de Minas U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santarritense U20 attack 0.86 + Inter de Minas U20 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.28

Inter de Minas U20 attack 1.75 + Santarritense U20 defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Santarritense U20 scores more
11%
level
13%
Inter de Minas U20 scores more
77%

Inter de Minas U20 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Inter de Minas U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Caick
14'
K. Pereira
48'
Caua
51'
Caick
64'
E. Silva de Oliveira
76'
R. Cardoso Filho
83'
C. Barreto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Santarritense U20 1–6 Inter de Minas U20

Inter de Minas U20 beat Santarritense U20 6-1 in Mineiro U20 on May 18, 2024.

Goals: Caick (6', 51'), K. Pereira (14'), Caua (48'), E. Silva de Oliveira (64'), R. Cardoso Filho (76'), C. Barreto (83').

The match was played at Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral in Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Minas Gerais.